‘A step in the best route’

Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush launched a brand new be aware on Friday morning simply after the corporate launched manufacturing and supply figures for This fall and the complete 12 months of 2025, stating that the numbers, whereas barely underwhelming, are “higher than feared” and as “a step in the best route.”

Tesla reported manufacturing of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, whereas 1,654,667 automobiles had been produced and 1,636,129 vehicles had been delivered for the complete 12 months.

Tesla releases This fall and FY 2025 car supply and manufacturing report

Curiously, the corporate posted its personal consensus figures that had been compiled from numerous companies on its web site a number of days in the past, the place expectations had been set at 1,640,752 vehicles for the 12 months. Tesla fell about 4,000 models wanting that. One of many areas the place Tesla excelled was power deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the 12 months.

? Wedbush’s Dan Ives has launched a brand new be aware on Tesla $TSLA:

“Tesla introduced its FY4Q25 supply numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k automobiles barely beneath the corporate’s consensus supply estimate of 422.9k however significantly better than the whisper numbers of ~410k because the…

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026

By way of car deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla actually has some issues to work via if it needs to return to progress in that facet, particularly with the lack of the $7,500 tax credit score within the U.S. and “steady headwinds” for the corporate in Europe.

Nevertheless, Ives additionally believes thatgiven the supply numbers, which had been on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned properly for a robust 2026, particularly with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab improvement, and power:

“This shall be seen as higher than feared deliveries and a step in the best route for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We sit up for listening to extra on the firm’s 4Q25 name on January twenty eighth. AI Valuation – The Focus All through 2026. We imagine Tesla might attain a $2 trillion market cap over the approaching 12 months and, in a bull case situation, $3 trillion by the top of 2026…as full-scale quantity manufacturing begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The corporate has began to check the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the previous few weeks, which is an incremental step in direction of launching in 2026 with necessary quantity manufacturing of Cybercabs beginning in April/Might, which stays the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”

It’s no secret that for the previous a number of years, Tesla’s car supply numbers have been the principle focus of buyers and analysts have checked out them as an indicator of firm well being to a sure extent. The issue with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing extra on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus mission, AI improvement, and Cybercab.

Whereas car deliveries nonetheless maintain significance, it’s extra essential to notice that Tesla’s total setting as a enterprise depends on rather more than simply what number of vehicles are bought. That metric, to a sure extent, is fading in significance within the grand scheme of issues, however it is going to by no means completely disappear.

Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 value goal and an ‘Outperform’ ranking on the inventory.