What actually broke on the grid throughout Storm Fern – it wasn’t wind or photo voltaic

Winter Storm Fern knocked out energy for tens of millions of individuals throughout the US and reignited a well-recognized political and media struggle over what actually causes large-scale outages throughout excessive climate. To separate the rhetoric from the operational actuality, Electrek spoke with Leah Qusba, CEO of GoodPowera analysis, strategic communications, and campaigning group centered on advancing the worldwide renewable power transition.

On this Q&A, Qusba walks by way of what tends to fail first throughout main winter storms, what outage knowledge exhibits concerning the function of wind, photo voltaic, and fossil era throughout Fern, why gasoline provide and winterization nonetheless matter greater than the era combine, and the way coordinated disinformation campaigns exploit moments of uncertainty after grid emergencies and what works to counter them.

Electrek: When “tens of millions lose energy,” what normally breaks first? Throughout huge winter storms like Fern, is the most important offender usually distribution, transmission, or era?

Leah Qusba: The “offender” is nearly at all times the distribution community, adopted by era. Transmission is mostly essentially the most resilient a part of the grid, although it is usually essentially the most impactful if it fails.

Commercial – scroll for extra content material

Distribution networks are essentially the most uncovered and least redundant section of the system. They depend on poles, transformers, and native traces which might be straight susceptible to ice loading, excessive winds, falling vegetation, and car strikes. In Fern’s case, freezing rain coated distribution traces and close by vegetation with ice, including important weight that snapped cables and pulled bushes down into native networks.

When outages have an effect on neighborhoods, it’s normally as a result of distribution programs are broken or intentionally de-energized for security causes. Transmission programs are extra hardened and meshed, and huge mills are usually designed to journey by way of chilly situations. Distribution harm, in contrast, requires hands-on reconstruction work – changing poles, restringing wires, and clearing particles.

Distribution can be the most costly a part of the grid to harden due to its sheer scale. Burying traces can forestall storm harm, however at a price: Undergrounding can run roughly $1 million–$1.5 million per mile, in contrast with about $300,000 per mile for overhead traces. As excessive climate occasions intensify, the price of hardening the grid is just prone to rise.

Regardless of what some biased narratives counsel, wind and photo voltaic era are hardly ever the initiating trigger of huge, storm-driven outages. Throughout winter occasions, wind output is usually robust, and photo voltaic merely follows daylight availability. The binding constraint is getting electrons by way of broken native wires to clients, not a scarcity of era on the system.

From a system-cost perspective, investments that harden distribution infrastructure and enhance sectionalizing and restoration pace are likely to ship way more reliability worth than debates concerning the era combine.

Electrek: Primarily based on outage knowledge and grid operator studies, to what extent, if in any respect, have been photo voltaic and wind the reason for outages throughout Storm Fern? What types of energy era had essentially the most hassle, if that was a problem?

Leah Qusba: Primarily based on publicly accessible data, there isn’t any proof that wind or photo voltaic era was a major reason behind outages throughout Fern. The overwhelming driver of buyer outages seems to have been weather-related harm to the distribution system.

When era does wrestle throughout these occasions, it’s usually thermal vegetation that run into issues. Gasoline traces can freeze, cooling water intakes can ice over, and coal piles have frozen at energy vegetation throughout earlier chilly snaps. Whereas critics continuously level to frozen wind generators, fashionable cold-weather packages, together with inside heaters and blade coatings, permit wind to carry out properly in chilly situations. Wind output throughout winter storms is usually at or above seasonal averages. Photo voltaic efficiency throughout Fern seems to have been predictable and properly accounted for by system operators.

For extra context, an in depth evaluation of Winter Storm Uri by joint employees from the Federal Vitality Regulatory Fee (FERC) and the North American Electrical Reliability Company (NERC) discovered that insufficient cold-weather preparedness of thermal mills and their gasoline provide infrastructure was a core reason behind era outages. The ultimate employees report referred to as for stronger generator winterization and higher coordination between pure fuel and electrical programs to forestall failures of the thermal fleet throughout extended chilly situations.

Gasoline provide is a crucial a part of this image. Pure fuel manufacturing amenities can wrestle to extract and transport fuel throughout excessive chilly as a result of the tools freezes. That impacts gas-fired energy vegetation and could be expensive for shoppers. Throughout Fern, pure fuel costs hit report highs as demand surged and provide dropped by roughly 10% attributable to cold-related shut-ins. These prices will finally be handed on to ratepayers.

Electrek: A number of US Division of Vitality press releases issuing emergency orders for backup era throughout Fern quote Vitality Secretary Chris Wright saying“The earlier administration’s power subtraction insurance policies weakened the grid, leaving People extra susceptible throughout occasions like Winter Storm Fern.” The EIA stated coal “rose to satisfy demand,” whereas different sources argue a diversified grid decreased outages. What does the proof truly present?

Leah Qusba: We have to separate political framing from operational knowledge. The proof exhibits a way more complicated image than easy narratives about coal saving the grid or renewables inflicting failures.

The first driver of buyer outages was harm to the distribution system. On the era aspect, stress was concentrated within the thermal fleet, significantly in pure fuel items going through fuel-deliverability constraints and cold-weather mechanical failures. PJM reported roughly 21 GW of thermal capability offline at peak attributable to frozen tools and different mechanical points. This compelled operators to dispatch extra coal and oil era on the margin. The Division of Vitality additionally issued Part 202(c) emergency orders permitting grid operators to bypass environmental limits and entry roughly 35 GW of behind-the-meter backup era – principally diesel items at knowledge facilities.

Coal era elevated in the course of the storm, primarily as a result of coal vegetation retailer gasoline onsite and prevented pipeline freeze-offs that constrained fuel provide. On the identical time, wind and photo voltaic output tracked near forecast expectations.

The “power subtraction” argument usually refers to thermal plant retirements over the previous decade and the declare that these retirements decreased reserve margins. There’s a authentic financial dialogue available about planning reserve adequacy, however the operational proof from Fern doesn’t assist the concept retirements have been the decisive reliability issue. The acute issues throughout Fern have been about gasoline supply and winterization, not a scarcity of put in capability.

The information finally helps the worth of useful resource variety. In ERCOT, wind and photo voltaic equipped as much as 30% of era throughout key storm durations, and post-2021 winterization efforts saved generators on-line at the same time as fuel manufacturing dropped sharply. Fern was additionally the primary main winter storm with greater than 20 GW of battery storage deployed nationally. Batteries in PJM and ERCOT supplied crucial frequency response when giant thermal vegetation tripped offline, successfully appearing as shock absorbers for the grid.

Coal’s onsite gasoline storage proved helpful when fuel pipelines froze, however that’s an argument for gasoline variety – not know-how dominance. No single useful resource rescued the grid. The system held collectively by way of a mix of fuel-secure era, emergency diesel dispatch, battery flexibility, and aggressive operator intervention. The takeaway for planners is the significance of gasoline reliability, winterization requirements, and sustaining a various useful resource combine.

Electrek: How have coordinated disinformation campaigns about renewables exploited Storm Fern, and what has truly labored to counter them?

Leah Qusba: Disinformation round Fern adopted a well-recognized sample: broad energy system failures have been rapidly framed as proof that renewables had “failed,” usually earlier than operational knowledge was accessible. On this case, we noticed a coordinated wave of social media movies, partisan commentary, and even official statements amplifying the declare that wind and photo voltaic weakened the grid.

These narratives unfold regardless of grid operator studies and market knowledge pointing elsewhere. A number of viral posts misattributed distribution-level outages and pure fuel gasoline constraints to renewable intermittency, continuously recycling speaking factors from prior storms like Uri with out regard to Fern-specific situations. The danger is that incorrect narratives drive coverage and funding selections that finally make the grid much less resilient and dearer.

What has confirmed efficient in countering these claims is pace and specificity – utilizing actual knowledge to elucidate, in plain language, what truly constrained the system. Equally essential is the usage of trusted messengers. Unbiased analysts and creators who can contextualize real-time knowledge for non-technical audiences are sometimes higher positioned to chop by way of misinformation.

The Fern expertise reinforces that disinformation thrives within the first 24 to 48 hours after a significant occasion, when uncertainty is highest. The simplest counter is well timed, factual evaluation grounded in operator studies relatively than ideology or opinion.

Learn extra: US electrical energy demand surged in 2025 – photo voltaic dealt with 61% of it

---

For those who’re seeking to change your outdated HVAC tools, it’s at all times a good suggestion to get quotes from a number of installers. To be sure you’re discovering a trusted, dependable HVAC installer close to you that gives aggressive pricing on warmth pumps, try EnergySage. EnergySage is a free service that makes it simple so that you can get a warmth pump. They’ve pre-vetted warmth pump installers competing for your small business, making certain you get top quality options. Plus, it’s free to make use of!

Your personalised warmth pump quotes are simple to check on-line and also you’ll get entry to unbiased Vitality Advisors that will help you each step of the way in which. Get began right here. – *advert

FTC: We use revenue incomes auto affiliate hyperlinks. Extra.