Celebrating SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy Tesla Roadster launch, seven years later (Op-Ed)

With the information of a merger between SpaceX and xAI being confirmed earlier this week by CEO Elon Musk straight, the primary strikes of an umbrella firm that mixes all the serial tech entrepreneur’s firms have been established.

The transfer goals to mix SpaceX’s prowess in launches with xAI’s increasing imaginative and prescient in synthetic intelligence, as Musk has detailed the necessity for space-based knowledge facilities that can require huge quantities of vitality to function.

It has all the time been within the plans to carry Musk’s firms collectively below one umbrella.

“My firms are, surprisingly in some methods, trending towards convergence,” Musk stated in November. With SpaceX and xAI transferring collectively, many are questioning when Tesla shall be subsequent. Analysts consider it’s a no-brainer.

SpaceX formally acquires xAI, merging rockets with AI experience

Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a word earlier this week that there’s a “rising probability” Tesla might be merged in some type with the brand new conglomeration over the following 12 to 18 months.

“In our view, there’s a rising probability that Tesla will finally be merged in some type into SpaceX/xAI over time. The viewis this rising AI ecosystem will deal with Area and Earth collectively… and Musk will look to mix forces,” Ives stated.

Let’s check out the potential.

The Case for Synergies – Constructing the Final AI Ecosystem

A triple merger would create a unified “Musk Trinity,” mixing Tesla’s bodily AI with Robotaxi, Optimus, and Full Self-Driving, SpaceX’s orbital infrastructure via Starlink and potential space-based pc, and xAI’s superior fashions, together with Grok.

This might speed up real-world AI purposes, extra particularly, ones like utilizing satellite tv for pc networks for world autonomy, and even powering huge coaching via solar-optimized orbital knowledge facilities.

The FCC welcomes and now seeks touch upon the SpaceX software for Orbital Knowledge Facilities.

The proposed system would function a primary step in direction of changing into a Kardashev II-level civilization and serve different functions, in response to the applicant. pic.twitter.com/TDnUPuz9w7

— Brendan Carr (@BrendanCarrFCC) February 4, 2026

This might place the entity, which might in the end be labeled “X,” as a pacesetter in multiplanetary AI-native tech.

It could influence each stage of Musk’s AI-based imaginative and prescient for the longer term, from passenger use to advanced AI coaching fashions.

Monetary and Structural Incentives — and Dangers

xAI’s excessive money burn charge is now backed by SpaceX’s huge valuation increase, and Tesla becoming a member of the merger would assist the corporate acquire entry to personal funding channels, avoiding dilution in a public-heavy construction.

The deal is sensible from a capital standpoint, because it is a bonus for every firm in its personal particular means, addressing particular wants.

As a result of xAI is spending cash at an accelerating charge as a result of its huge compute wants, SpaceX supplies a little bit of a “lifeline” by redirecting its rising money flows towards AI ambitions with out the necessity for fixed exterior fundraising.

Moreover, Tesla’s current $2 billion funding in xAI additionally ties in, as its personal heavy CapEx for Dojo supercomputers, Robotaxis, and Optimus might doubtlessly be streamlined.

Musk’s stake in Tesla and SpaceX, after the xAI merger, can also be uneven. His possession in Tesla equates to about 13 %, solely growing as he achieves every tranche of his most up-to-date compensation bundle. In the meantime, he owns about 43 % of the personal SpaceX.

A triple merger between the three firms might increase his possession within the mixed entity to round 26 %. This might give Musk what he needs: stronger voting energy and alignment throughout his ventures.

It is also a possible facilitator in private-to-public transitions, as a reverse merger construction to take SpaceX public not directly by way of Tesla might be used. This avoids any IPO scrutiny whereas accessing the general public markets’ liquidity.

Timeline and Triggers for a Public Announcement

As beforehand talked about, Ives believes a 12-18 month timeline is life like, fueled by Musk’s repeated hints at convergence between his three firms. Moreover, the current xAI funding by Tesla solely factors towards the elevated potential for a conglomeration.

After all, there’s hypothesis that the merger might occur within the shorter time period, earlier than June 30 of this yr, which is a authentic chance. Whereas this chance exists however stays at low likelihood, particularly when pushed by fast AI/house momentum, longer horizons, like 2027 or later, enable for key milestones like Tesla’s Robotaxi rollout and Cybercab ramp-upOptimus scaling, or regulatory readability below a good administration.

Credit score: Grok Think about

The sequencing issues: SpaceX-xAI merger as “the first step” towards a unified stack, with a possible SpaceX IPO setting a valuation benchmark earlier than any Tesla tie-up.

Full triple convergence might comply with if synergies show out.

Prediction markets are additionally an inexpensive factor to have a look at, simply to get an concept of the place persons are placing their cash. Polymarket, for instance, sits at between a 12 and 24 % probability {that a} Tesla-SpaceX merger is formally introduced earlier than June 30, 2026.

Trying Forward

The SpaceX-xAI merger just isn’t your typical company shuffle. As an alternative, it’s the clearest sign but that Musk is architecting a unified “Muskonomy” the place AI, house infrastructure, and real-world robotics converge to unravel humanity’s largest challenges.

But the trail is fraught with execution dangers that would flip this visionary upside into a significant worth entice. Valuation mismatches stay on the forefront of this skepticism: Tesla’s public multiples are not like any firm ever, with many believing they’re “stretched.” Then again, SpaceX-xAI’s personal “marked-to-muth” pricing hinges on unproven synergies and lofty initiatives, particularly orbital knowledge facilities and all the issues Musk and Co. should work out alongside the best way.

Finally, your entire factor depends on a high-conviction guess on Musk’s skill to execute at scale. The bullish case is transformative: a vertically built-in AI-space-robotics large accelerates humanity towards abundance and multi-planetary civilization quicker than any siloed firm might.