Daimler Truck manufacturing forecast to 2029

Included on this evaluation:

• Overview
• Working construction
• Current efficiency
• Strategic plan
• Gross sales
• Manufacturing
• Outlook
• Downloadable information (Excel)
  • Manufacturing by model (2020-2024)
  • Manufacturing forecasts by model (2020-2029)

Overview

• Consolidated gross sales for Daimler Truck Holding AG (DT) dropped by 12.5% in 2024 to 460,000 models. Not included within the consolidated determine are wholesales of 56,600 models (2023: 70,100) by Beijing Foton Daimler Automotive (BFDA), a 50/50 three way partnership with China’s Beiqi Foton Motor.
• Numerous purchases over time have endowed DT with its present portfolio of six truck manufacturers (BharatBenz, Freightliner, Fuso, Mercedes-Benz, Rizon and Western Star) and 5 bus manufacturers (BharatBenz, Fuso, Mercedes-Benz, Setra and Thomas Constructed).
• Fuso will quickly drop out of DT’s scope of consolidation following the deliberate merger with Hino Motors to kind Archion in April 2026. DT and Toyota (Hino’s majority shareholder) every plan to carry 25% of Archion.
• In October 2024, Karin Rådström succeeded Martin Daum as DT’s Chief Government. She set out her strategic plan for the corporate at a capital markets day in mid-2025, underpinned by its ‘Less complicated. Sooner. Stronger.’ strategy.

Working construction

DT’s 5 divisions comprise the 4 industrial companies plus monetary providers:

• Daimler Vans North America (DTNA)
  • Sells industrial automobiles and chassis below the Freightliner, Western Star, Thomas Constructed Buses and Rivon manufacturers;
  • Manufacturing community includes 15 vegetation within the US and Mexico.
• Mercedes-Benz Vans (MBT)
  • Sells vans below the Mercedes-Benz model in Europe, the Center East, Africa and Latin America, and can be chargeable for the sale of Fuso model vans in Europe and Latin America;
  • Produces its personal powertrains at a number of manufacturing websites in Germany and Brazil;
  • Manufacturing community includes 9 vegetation in Europe and Brazil, in addition to quite a few CKD meeting vegetation in Africa, Asia and Europe.
• Daimler Vans Asia (DTA)
  • Combines the operations of Fuso, based mostly in Japan, and Daimler India Industrial Automobiles (DICV), based mostly in India;
  • Sells Fuso and BharatBenz vans and buses, and likewise distributes Mercedes-Benz vans and buses in quite a few Asian markets. Fuso additionally manufactures industrial engines;
  • Manufacturing community contains eight services in Japan, India, Indonesia and Europe in addition to a number of CKD meeting plant vegetation in different markets;
  • Additionally lively in China by means of Daimler Truck China, which sells vans of the Mercedes-Benz model in China;
  • Initially of 2025, DT built-in its companies in China and India from the Vans Asia phase into the Mercedes-Benz phase, forming one international MBT phase.
• Daimler Buses (DB)
  • A full-range provider of buses and bus chassis by means of its Mercedes-Benz and Setra manufacturers;
  • Operates the European enterprise for all its manufacturers by means of Evobus GmbH, a subsidiary of DT;
  • Manufacturing community includes 9 websites in Europe, North America and South America, in addition to CKD meeting vegetation in different markets.
• Monetary Companies
  • One of many world’s largest captive monetary providers suppliers within the CV sector;
  • Helps the gross sales of DT’s truck and bus manufacturers with tailor-made monetary providers, which embrace leasing and financing packages in addition to insurance coverage and rental options.

Daimler Vans* income & working revenue margin development

Current efficiency

DT’s income fell 3.2% to €54.1bn in 2024, following the 12.5% drop in gross sales. This was beneath its start-of-year expectations, however the forecasts had already been revised downwards as demand in key markets, significantly Europe, was just a little weaker than anticipated all year long.

Provided that fall in gross sales, the 22% drop in working revenue to €4.2bn and 1.9pts fall within the margin to 7.8% was a reasonably resilient efficiency helped by EBIT will increase in two of the group’s 5 divisions: DTNA and DB.

In H1-2025, the corporate reported that EBIT dropped by 29%, largely because of non-recurring components equivalent to restructuring in MBT. On a recurring foundation there was a 4% drop in EBIT, however the recurring margin improved by 0.2pts to 9.1%.

Having began the yr anticipating recurring revenue to extend, DT now expects a full-year decline of 13-23%, primarily as a result of weaker and extra unsure outlook for North America.

Strategic plan

DT’s 2025 Capital Markets Day presentation was the chance for brand new Chief Government Karin Rådström to place her stamp on the corporate and description its strategy to the challenges it faces. Close to-term, these challenges embrace slowing demand in Europe and North America in addition to weaker profitability within the MBT division. In the long run, DT is attempting to adapt its operations to altering expectations across the velocity of zero-emission car adoption.

Rådström offered her strategic plan below the headings of ‘Less complicated. Sooner. Stronger.’

• Less complicated: Focuses on simplifying DT’s construction and processes to enhance effectivity. This contains implementing a €1bn ‘Price Down Europe’ programme to scale back annual prices in its European operations by at the very least €1bn by 2030.
• Sooner: Centres on accelerating decision-making throughout the organisation.
• Stronger: Goals to attain stronger monetary efficiency, together with a goal of greater than 12% recurring margin for its industrial enterprise by 2030. That is supported by a performance-driven tradition, bolstered pay-for-performance fashions, and a concentrate on worthwhile progress.

Some of the important features of the brand new plan is the deceleration of battery electrical car growth within the US, recognising that the “transformation velocity in the direction of (zero emission automobiles) ZEV diverges globally”. Accordingly, the corporate says it can ramp down its actions when it comes to creating and launching a world battery platform, although will proceed to roll out electrical vans in Europe.

Equally, DT has lowered expectations for gasoline cell powered vans. Whereas it has maintained plans for a market launch in 2029, it has lowered quantity targets and can initially confine the launch to Europe solely.

The event of gasoline cell expertise is carried out by CellCentric, a three way partnership with Volvo agreed in 2020. Volvo can be DT’s associate for the Correction three way partnership established in June 2025. This intends to create a standardised, software-defined car platform for industrial vans, aiming to decouple {hardware} and software program growth to permit for wi-fi over-the-air updates and future digital purposes. First merchandise are anticipated by the top of the last decade.

DT’s strategic plan anticipates natural income progress of 3-5% CAGR from 2025 to 2030 and targets a 12% recurring margin for the commercial companies by 2030.

Gross sales

DT’s gross sales in almost all its main markets declined in 2024 with falls of 33% in Europe, 1.8% in North America and 20% in Asia. South America was the exception with a 25% rise to 47,000 models, following a 36% drop in 2023. The non-consolidated BFDA three way partnership bought 56,650 models (2023: 70,080, 2022: 49,160, 2021: 102,980).

In Europe’s medium/heavy truck sector, MBT remained market chief in 2024, though its share fell by 1.9pts to 17.8%. Its share fell by 2.1pts to 16.9% within the heavy-duty sector, and there was a 0.7pts fall to 24.6% within the medium sector.

Daimler Truck* gross sales by market, 2015-24 (000s)

* Displays truck & bus gross sales from 2019, prior is truck solely

In North America, the Freightliner and Western Star manufacturers elevated their management within the Class 8 market, as their mixed share rose 0.7pts to 39.8%. Their share of the Class 6-7 market was 0.7pts decrease at 34.1%.

In Japan, Fuso was No. 2 within the giant truck market (8t-plus) in 2024, taking a 27% share.

Manufacturing

DT’s consolidated output in 2024 largely mirrored gross sales, falling by 13.6% to 454,500 vans and buses. Manufacturing in North America was 1% larger however there have been falls of 24% at MBT; 21% at DTA and three% at DB. Automotive World’s forecast focuses on DT’s truck output.

Manufacturing community

The truck vegetation at the moment are properly unfold with 12 truck meeting vegetation worldwide:

• Brazil – São Bernardo do Campo and Juiz de Fora, Mercedes-Benz vans;
• Germany – Wörth, Mercedes-Benz vans, the plant celebrated its sixtieth anniversary in 2023, having produced greater than 4.4 million vans together with 790,000 CKD kits;
• India – Chennai, BharatBenz vans, additionally badged as Freightliner, Fuso and Mercedes-Benz;
• Japan – Kawasaki, Fuso vans;
• Mexico – Santiago Tianguistenco and Saltillo, Freightliner vans;
• Portugal – Tramagal, Fuso vans;
• Turkey – Aksaray, Mercedes-Benz vans;
• USA – Cleveland and Portland, Freightliner & Western Star vans; Mount Holly, Freightliner vans.

There are additionally some minor vegetation for particular function automobiles or chassis. In whole, the division operates some 27 vegetation worldwide if engine and different element vegetation are included, in addition to the BFDA plant in Beijing’s Haikou district.

Along with the wholly-owned major vegetation, DT makes use of a lot of CKD/SKD meeting vegetation in markets together with Indonesia, Kenya, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Thailand.

These meeting vegetation are largely low-volume, operated as joint ventures with Daimler because the minority associate. Indonesia is presently the principle exception to the ‘low-volume’ remark with output within the tens of hundreds.

Outlook

DT’s truck output is ready to fall for the third successive yr in 2025, introduced decrease primarily by the declines in North America and Europe. Automotive World anticipates a fall of almost 10% total to 386,000 models.

Output is anticipated to start recovering in 2026, as demand in North America and Europe picks up within the second-half of the yr. In each areas, gross sales progress is especially anticipated to be generated by alternative demand as truck fleets age, reasonably than any important growth of capability by hauliers.

Additional progress in DT’s output is anticipated from 2027 to 2030. A beforehand anticipated pre-buy impact within the US, in response to 2027 emission regulation modifications, has been set again by authorized challenges and political pushback in opposition to the rules, which the Environmental Safety Company is presently re-evaluating. With the following US election not due till 2028, the introduction of more durable emission rules throughout the forecast interval seems to be unlikely.

Prematurely of Euro 7 emission requirements making use of to all new vans from Could 2029, a pre-buy impact is anticipated for DT’s European output in 2028.

In relative phrases, the strongest progress in DT’s manufacturing is anticipated to be in India, the place output ought to almost double by 2029 as the corporate gears up not just for rising home demand however extra considerably for the next stage of exports, together with some switch of volumes from Germany as a part of the Price Down Europe initiative. India was the corporate’s smallest manufacturing supply in 2015 however is anticipated to be the fifth-largest by 2029.

The forecast contains output by Fuso in all years. Assuming the merger with Hino goes forward in 2026, it can not be included within the scope of DT’s consolidation.

Daimler Vans manufacturing by nation, 2015-29 (000s)