Australia’s new-vehicle market could be larger than it was a decade in the past, but it surely’s additionally extra fragmented.
Complete gross sales rose from 1,155,408 deliveries in 2015 to 1,241,037 in 2025a achieve of 85,629 automobiles. But over the identical span, the high finish of the market ceded significant share to a rising ‘lengthy tail’ of smaller and mid-size auto manufacturers.
The clearest measure is focus. In 2015, the high 10 marques accounted for 75.9 per cent of all new-vehicle gross sales. In 2025, the highest 10’s share fell to 67.3 per cent. In different phrases, almost one in three new automobiles bought final 12 months got here from outdoors the ten largest manufacturers, up from one in 4 again in 2015.
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The highest 10 manufacturers mixed delivered 877,399 automobiles in 2015. In 2025, the highest 10 delivered 835,515 – 41,884 fewer automobiles – regardless of the general market being greater. Your entire decade’s internet progress got here from outdoors the highest 10, the place mixed gross sales climbed from 278,009 items in 2015 to 405,522 items in 2025 (up 127,513).
Even the dominance of the highest three manufacturers softened barely by way of share. The highest three held 36.6 per cent of the market in 2015, versus 34.3 per cent in 2025 – regardless of their mixed quantity being successfully flat throughout the last decade (423,211 in 2015 versus 426,185 in 2025). The market expanded beneath them.
For the statisticians, the HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) went from 777 in 2015 to 709 in 2025.
Model focus snapshot
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Complete market (items) | 1,155,408 | 1,241,037 |
| Complete marques listed | 68 | 79 |
| Manufacturers ?10,000 gross sales | 19 | 23 |
| Manufacturers ?1,000 gross sales | 39 | 48 |
| High 3 marques share | 36.6% | 34.3% |
| High 10 marques share | 75.9% | 67.3% |
| High 20 marques share | 94.5% | 89.0% |
| Exterior high 10 (items) | 278,009 | 405,522 |
| Exterior high 10 share | 24.1% | 32.7% |
| HHI | 777 | 709 |
What’s hanging right here is that extra manufacturers are doing significant quantity concurrently the ‘huge 10’ have gotten much less dominant. The variety of marques surpassing 10,000 gross sales elevated from 19 to 23, and marques above 1000 gross sales lifted from 39 to 48. That’s an indication of small-scale manufacturers struggling in a market with extra large-scale gamers than it had 10 years in the past.
It’s value noting that Australia is a take a look at mattress for a lot of Chinese language manufacturers that use its relative measurement, ease of entry and lack of tariffs to check their merchandise on western tastes earlier than heading to bigger and way more expensive markets.
Going again in time, the listing of high 10 manufacturers in 2015 reads like a snapshot from the tip of a golden period for Australian manufacturing. Holden was nonetheless a significant power, Honda was nonetheless a high-volume mainstream model, and a number of other Japanese and European marques sat comfortably inside the highest 10.
High 10 manufacturers – 2015
| Rank | Marque | Gross sales | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toyota | 206,236 | 17.8% |
| 2 | Mazda | 114,024 | 9.9% |
| 3 | Holden | 102,951 | 8.9% |
| 4 | Hyundai | 102,004 | 8.8% |
| 5 | Mitsubishi | 71,743 | 6.2% |
| 6 | Ford | 70,454 | 6.1% |
| 7 | Nissan | 66,062 | 5.7% |
| 8 | Volkswagen | 60,225 | 5.2% |
| 9 | Subaru | 43,600 | 3.8% |
| 10 | Honda | 40,100 | 3.5% |
Now examine that with 2025: Holden is gone from the listing (and the market), and a wave of newer entrants has pressured its manner into the highest tier – together with a number of Chinese language manufacturers.
High 10 manufacturers – 2025
| Rank | Marque | Gross sales | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toyota | 239,863 | 19.3% |
| 2 | Ford | 94,399 | 7.6% |
| 3 | Mazda | 91,923 | 7.4% |
| 4 | Come on | 82,105 | 6.6% |
| 5 | Hyundai | 77,208 | 6.2% |
| 6 | Mitsubishi | 61,198 | 4.9% |
| 7 | Companion | 52,809 | 4.3% |
| 8 | BYD | 52,415 | 4.2% |
| 9 | Isuzu Ute | 42,297 | 3.4% |
| 10 | MG | 41,298 | 3.3% |
A key level: the ‘minimize line’ for the highest 10 hasn’t moved a lot. In 2015, the Tenth-placed model bought 40,100 automobiles; in 2025, the quantity was 41,298. What modified is how a lot quantity sits outdoors that high group, and what number of manufacturers at the moment are able to hovering round (or above) that 40,000-50,000 mark.
On the very high, Toyota has really strengthened its lead. In 2015, Toyota’s margin over second-placed Mazda was 92,212 items. In 2025, Toyota’s lead over second-placed Ford expanded to 145,464.
A number of manufacturers that hardly registered in 2015 (or weren’t listed in any respect) grew to become real quantity gamers by 2025.
Key takeouts from the 2015 marque desk:
- Nice Wall Motors recorded 142 deliveries in 2015; the rebranded Companion delivered 52,809 in 2025
- Chery rose from 201 in 2015 to 34,889 in 2025
- MG didn’t seem within the 2015 marque listing, but delivered 41,298 items in 2025 (sufficient for a top-10 putting)
That is what market dilution appears to be like like in apply. Toyota remains to be enormous, however there are merely extra manufacturers taking significant bites out of the remaining market.
For those who’re on the lookout for the “when did it actually unfold out?” second, 2023 stands out because the 12 months that modified the panorama. Throughout 2015-2025, the market’s lowest high?10 share occurred in 2023, when the highest 10 fell to 66.9 per cent and the highest three dipped to 33.1 per cent. It wasn’t that the highest manufacturers collapsed, it was that the center of the market expanded shortly.
Attention-grabbing info:
- The market grew 85,629 items from 2015 to 2025, however the high 10 manufacturers’ mixed quantity fell by 41,884
- The ‘outdoors high 10’ portion of the market grew by 127,513 items over the last decade (from 278,009 to 405,522)
- The variety of marques listed elevated from 68 to 79
- Toyota’s gross sales rose from 206,236 to 239,863whereas its lead over second place widened from 92,212 to 145,464
Rusted-on Toyota patrons are nonetheless going robust and it’s clear that Australia nonetheless has a dominant number-one model, however the market behind it has turn out to be extra aggressive, extra crowded, and extra dynamic – with way more manufacturers now able to scaling as much as five-figure annual quantity.
That is nice for shoppers who’ve extra selection now than ever, however the query must be requested: how for much longer can our market maintain so many makes and fashions?
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