Elon Musk admitted on Tesla’s This autumn 2025 earnings name at this time that the corporate doesn’t have any Optimus robots doing helpful work in its factories proper now.
It is a putting admission, provided that Musk has spent the previous two years claiming the alternative.
What Musk stated earlier than
Let’s take a stroll via reminiscence lane.
June 2024: Tesla’s official account claimed the corporate had “2 Optimus bots performing duties within the manufacturing unit autonomously.”
June 2024: At Tesla’s shareholder assembly, Musk stated he anticipated “a thousand to some thousand robots working in its factories” by 2025.
January 2025: On Tesla’s This autumn 2024 earnings name, Musk raised the stakes even increased:
“The conventional inner plan requires roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be constructed this yr.”
He added:
“Will these a number of thousand Optimus robots be doing helpful issues by the tip of the yr? Sure, I’m assured they may do helpful issues.”
As we speak (January 2026): Musk admitted that no Optimus robots are at the moment doing helpful work in Tesla’s factories.
“Properly, we’re nonetheless very a lot on the early phases of Optimus. It’s nonetheless within the R&D section. Now we have had Optimus do some primary duties within the manufacturing unit. However as we iterate on new variations of Optimus, we deprecate the outdated variations. It’s not in utilization in our factories in a cloth method. It’s extra in order that the robotic can be taught. We wouldn’t count on to have any type of important Optimus manufacturing quantity till in all probability the tip of this yr.”
The sample
This follows a now-familiar sample with Musk’s predictions.
We documented final month that Tesla by no means got here near producing hundreds of Optimus robots in 2025. There was no proof of even a whole bunch being constructed.
Throughout the earnings name, Musk was particularly requested about what number of Optimus robots Tesla has, and he didn’t reply.
What Tesla has demonstrated publicly are robots performing easy duties like handing out water bottles, and even then, they relied closely on teleoperation (people remotely controlling the robots) slightly than true autonomy.
A number of provide chain reviews all through 2025 indicated that Tesla’s Optimus program was in “shambles,” with the pinnacle of this system departing and manufacturing being delayed.
Tesla Optimus Gen 3
In at this time’s shareholder replace, Tesla did point out progress on Optimus:
“In Q1 of this yr, we plan to unveil the Gen 3 model of Optimus, which is able to embody main upgrades from model 2.5, together with our newest hand design. The Gen 3 is our first design meant for mass manufacturing.”
Tesla additionally stated it’s making ready manufacturing traces with “begin of manufacturing deliberate earlier than the tip of 2026 and eventual deliberate capability of 1 million robots per yr.”
However the admission that no robots are at the moment doing helpful work straight contradicts years of claims from each Musk and Tesla’s official communications.
Electrek’s Take
I wish to be clear: I’m truly bullish on humanoid robots. The know-how is advancing quickly, and Tesla does have benefits in compute effectivity and AI growth.
However Tesla is working full velocity ($20 billion capex value) into the identical downside it had with autonomous automobiles: it builds the {hardware} earlier than the software program is prepared.
On high of this, despite the fact that I’m bullish on humanoid (to a level, I’m not saying its a multi-trillion greenback trade), I don’t actually belief Musk main this effort with this actual credibility downside.
When Musk claimed in January 2025 that “a number of thousand Optimus robots might be doing helpful issues by the tip of the yr,” he wasn’t making a long-term prediction about unsure know-how. He was making a near-term operational declare about his personal firm.
Now, a yr later, he’s admitting that the quantity is zero.
In the meantime, Tesla claimed had Optimus robots have been doing “actual work” in factories virtually two years in the past now.
It’s pretty clear for anybody who has been following this system intently that Tesla continues to be years away from a helpful product that may be capable to carry out work at an environment friendly stage past simply demos.
Even Musk appeared to considerably admits that he the primary a part of his response the place he stated that the robotic is “nonetheless very a lot on the early phases of Optimus. It’s nonetheless within the R&D section.”
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