Platinum Demand Situations Present Hydrogen’s Deadly Constraint

August 20, 2025

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Hydrogen advocates have a behavior of ignoring the apparent constraint sitting on the core of their most popular know-how. They communicate of price declines, of economies of scale, and of inexperienced hydrogen pipelines, however hardly ever acknowledge that the chemistry of proton alternate membrane gasoline cells is dependent upon a scarce and irreplaceable steel. In a latest articleI checked out Alstom’s hydrogen trains, which have been sidelined and pushed again to diesel as a result of Cummins couldn’t ship alternative gasoline cells. Following that thread again revealed that platinum shortages are on the coronary heart of the issue. The reality is that if a handful of trains run into bother, the story solely will get worse whenever you think about thousands and thousands of automobiles, vehicles, and buses relying on the identical scarce catalyst.

Platinum is the important thing to creating PEM gasoline cells work. It splits hydrogen molecules on the anode, permits protons via the membrane, and accelerates the sluggish response that mixes oxygen with electrons and protons on the cathode. No platinum means no sensible gasoline cell. World platinum provide is about 250 to 280 tons per yr. Roughly a 3rd goes into automotive catalytic converters, one other quarter goes into jewellery, a few fifth goes into industrial catalysts, and the remainder is break up amongst glass, electronics, and some rising makes use of. The market is already in deficit, with shortfalls of about 30 tons a yr and inventories working skinny. Costs have been climbing, and lease charges for bodily steel have spiked. That’s the market context into which hydrogen for mobility is making an attempt to insert itself.

Electrolysis faces a unique set of fabric challenges than gasoline cell automobiles as a result of not all electrolyser varieties rely on platinum. Proton alternate membrane electrolysers do use platinum and iridium on the electrodes, however their share of the market remains to be comparatively small in comparison with alkaline programs, which depend on plentiful supplies like nickel and iron. Strong oxide electrolysers keep away from platinum solely by working at excessive temperatures with ceramic supplies. Even inside PEM designs, platinum loadings are decrease than in heavy-duty transport stacks, and iridium shortage somewhat than platinum is the primary bottleneck. Because of this whereas platinum provide can sluggish the expansion of PEM electrolysis, the sector has technological alternate options that enable scaling with out being locked right into a single irreplaceable steel. Gasoline cell automobiles wouldn’t have that flexibility.

To grasp the size of the issue, it’s price working situations. A typical passenger gasoline cell automobile makes use of a stack of about 100 kW. At sensible loadings of 0.13 to 0.18 g of platinum per kW, that’s 13 to 18 g of platinum per car. A heavy truck stack of 300 kW at 0.4 to 0.6 g per kW consumes 120 to 180 g of platinum. A bus stack of 100 to 150 kW consumes 40 to 90 g. If solely 10 p.c of worldwide car gross sales have been gasoline cell primarily based, that might require 159 to 226 tons of platinum per yr. That’s 60 to 90 p.c of the whole world platinum market, leaving little or nothing for refining, diesel aftertreatment, or jewellery. A 50 p.c hydrogen car world would wish round 800 to 1,100 tons per yr, whereas a 100% state of affairs would devour 1,600 to 2,300 tons yearly. Even the bottom state of affairs consumes almost the entire market.

These numbers turn into extra vivid when transformed into geology. South African platinum ores typically comprise 2 to six g of platinum group metals per ton of rock. Business metrics counsel 10 to 40 tons of ore have to be processed to extract a single troy ounce of platinum. On that foundation, every ton of platinum requires the motion and processing of 320,000 to over 1.2 million tons of ore. On the low finish of the ten p.c hydrogen state of affairs, with demand of about 160 tons, the business would wish to mine and course of over 50 million tons of rock annually on high of right now’s manufacturing. On the higher finish, over 200 million tons of ore could be required. To place that in context, that’s extra rock than was excavated to construct the Panama Canal. It’s about half the annual quantity of iron ore mined in Australia. Scaling hydrogen transport means making an attempt so as to add a brand new mining business the dimensions of the copper sector, however devoted solely to at least one scarce steel.

Hydrogen advocates reply to this in a couple of predictable methods. They level out that platinum loadings have fallen by 80 p.c from the earliest stacks, which is true. They level to closed loop recycling applications that may get well 95 p.c of platinum from finish of life stacks, which is true in managed pilot situations. They spotlight analysis into PGM free catalysts and alkaline membranes, which is actual however not industrial. The issue is that none of those measures adjustments the elemental constraint. Heavy obligation stacks nonetheless want 0.4 to 0.6 g per kW for sturdiness, and shaving that quantity additional is tough. Recycling solely helps after a fleet has been constructed and retired, it doesn’t present the preliminary volumes wanted to scale. PGM free catalysts stay within the lab, and their efficiency and lifetimes have but to satisfy the necessities of heavy transport.

If hydrogen automobiles grabbed 10 p.c of the market, platinum demand would bounce by half. Market evaluation exhibits that platinum provide and demand are value inelastic within the brief time period. A 50 p.c enhance in demand in a deficit market with fastened provide is prone to double or triple the value. That may push platinum from $1,300 per ounce to $2,600 and even $3,900. At these costs, the platinum in a single passenger automobile stack would add $1,600 to $2,200 in price. In a heavy truck it might add $15,000 to $22,500. In a bus the rise could be $5,000 to $11,000. These prices come on high of the opposite disadvantages of gasoline cell automobiles in comparison with batteries, together with poor effectivity and better infrastructure prices.

Batteries will not be with out their very own steel necessities, however there isn’t a equal choke level. Nickel and cobalt could be averted by shifting to LFP chemistries. Lithium could be averted in some functions by sodium ion. Manganese and iron are plentiful. The constraints in batteries are round manufacturing facility construct out and provide chain group, not a single scarce and irreplaceable ingredient. In platinum the hydrogen sector has no such escape hatch. With out platinum, PEM gasoline cells don’t perform, and there’s no sensible substitute at scale.

This leads again to the query of honesty within the hydrogen narrative. Platinum shortages have been identified for years. Business roadmaps acknowledge the issue however current targets and aspirations as in the event that they have been close to time period realities. The truth is that even modest adoption would devour the majority of the worldwide platinum market, require transferring mountains of rock, and drive platinum costs excessive sufficient to make hydrogen automobiles unaffordable. The Alstom trains already confirmed what occurs when the constraint bites. At world scale the issue will not be a technical hiccup however a basic restrict. Vitality transitions succeed when applied sciences can scale with plentiful assets. Batteries meet that take a look at. Hydrogen for street transport doesn’t.

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