Bear in mind the open market worth (OMV) debacle? Sure, the one which was stated to doubtlessly make locally-assembled (CKD) automobiles price 10-30% extra and that the federal government has deferred to January 2026after having deferred it not less than 3 times. BIMB Securities expects this to spur ahead shopping for, particularly within the fourth quarter this yr, reviews The Edge.
“Expectations of recent OMV duties, doubtlessly efficient by 2026, could spur early purchases and enhance 4Q 2025 gross sales. We preserve our impartial view on the automotive sector, supported by resilient underlying demand and beneficial earnings insurance policies,” BIMB Securities stated in a analysis observe. Kenanga Funding Financial institution has additionally beforehand supported the ahead shopping for principle.
Nonetheless, international provide chain disruptions, softer shopper sentiment amidst rising dwelling prices and sturdy Chinese language competitors – together with the EV value battle – stay key draw back dangers, BIMB Securities added.
What number of new automobiles will Malaysia purchase this yr, after an insane 816,747-unit file final yr? RHB Funding Financial institution predicts 730,000Hong Leong Funding Financial institution 750,000CIMB Analysis 760,000Maybank Funding Financial institution Analysis 790,000 and Kenanga Funding Financial institution 805,000.
If we take the Malaysian Automotive Affiliation’s 780,000 models because the official 2025 complete trade quantity (TIV) forecast, we’re now 41% of the best way there (316,737 models year-to-date Might 2025, down 5% versus 333,309 models year-to-date Might 2024).
Might 2025 noticed 68,007 new automobiles bought in Malaysia (+12.4% from April’s 60,527 models), pushed by stronger passenger automobile gross sales, which rose 12.1% month-on-month (MoM) to 55,971 models. Business automobile gross sales additionally grew 15.2% MoM to five,250 models.
Clockwise from left: Proton gold 7, World Sealion 7, World Atto 3
“Whereas we predict the impending expiry of the tax exemption on CBU (fully-imported) EVs post-2025 might end in a surge of EV gross sales volumes this yr, the native EV market stays modest, accounting for circa 2% of complete automotive gross sales. Therefore, it’s unlikely {that a} surge in EV demand would materially transfer the TIV needle in 2025,” RHB Analysis stated in a observe, including that the 2026-expected OMV implementation contributes to the sector’s coverage overhang.
Though the street transport division’s (JPJ) knowledge says that 44% extra EVs had been bought in Might (4,152 models) than April, the EV rise in Malaysia is mostly gradual – analysts say automobiles which can be both partially (hybrids and plug-in hybrids) or absolutely powered by electrical energy (EVs) nonetheless face affordability constraints, with lots of them nonetheless priced exterior the mass market.
The RON 95 petrol subsidy rationalisation (which will occurwe simply don’t know precisely when) could assist public transport achieve traction instead, however it largely depends upon how the coverage is carried out, stated RHB Analysis, with analysts predicting that the transfer might drive middle-income shoppers to EVs or extra fuel-efficient ICE automobiles.
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