Benchmark has reiterated its “Purchase” ranking and $475 worth goal on Tesla inventory (NASDAQ: TSLA) as the corporate prepares to report its third-quarter automobile deliveries within the coming days.
Tesla inventory ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion on the finish of Q3 2025.
Benchmark’s estimates
Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg famous that he expects Tesla’s deliveries to hit round 442,000 automobiles this Q3, which is beneath the 448,000-unit consensus however nonetheless effectively above the 384,000 automobiles that the corporate reported in Q2 2025. Based on the analyst, some optimistic estimates for Tesla’s Q3 deliveries are as excessive as mid-460,000s.
“Tesla is anticipated to report 3Q25 international manufacturing and deliveries on Thursday. We mannequin 442,000 deliveries versus ~448,000 for FactSet consensus with some high-side calls within the mid-460,000s. A stable sequential uptick off 2Q25’s ~384,000, a measured setup into year-end given a uneven incentive/pricing backdrop,” the analyst wrote.
Benchmark just isn’t the one agency that holds an optimistic outlook on Tesla’s Q3 outcomes. Deutsche Financial institution raised its personal supply forecast to 461,500, whereas Piper Sandler lifted its worth goal to $500 following a go to to China to evaluate market circumstances. Cantor Fitzgerald additionally reiterated an “Chubby” ranking and $355 worth goal for TSLA inventory.
Inventory momentum meets aggressive headwinds
Tesla’s anticipated Q3 outcomes are boosted partly by the approaching expiration of the federal EV tax credit score in america, which analysts imagine has inspired patrons to finalize automobile purchases sooner, as famous in an Investing.com report.
Tesla shares have surged practically 30% in September, elevating expectations for a powerful supply report. Benchmark warned, nevertheless, that some volatility could emerge within the coming quarter.
“With the fill up sharply into the print (roughly ~28-32% in September), its positioning raises the bar for an upside shock to translate into additional near-term power; we additionally see danger of volatility if regional combine or ASPs underwhelm. We proceed to anticipate policy-driven choppiness after 3Q as sure EV incentives/credit tighten or roll off in choose markets, doubtlessly creating 4Q demand air pockets and order-book lumpiness,” the analyst wrote.
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