Tesla This autumn supply numbers are higher than they initially look: analyst

Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush launched a brand new word on Friday morning simply after the corporate launched manufacturing and supply figures for This autumn and the complete yr of 2025, stating that the numbers, whereas barely underwhelming, are “higher than feared” and as “a step in the correct path.”

Tesla reported manufacturing of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, whereas 1,654,667 automobiles had been produced and 1,636,129 automobiles had been delivered for the complete yr.

Tesla releases This autumn and FY 2025 car supply and manufacturing report

Curiously, the corporate posted its personal consensus figures that had been compiled from numerous companies on its web site a couple of days in the past, the place expectations had been set at 1,640,752 automobiles for the yr. Tesla fell about 4,000 models in need of that. One of many areas the place Tesla excelled was power deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the yr.

? Wedbush’s Dan Ives has launched a brand new word on Tesla $TSLA:

“Tesla introduced its FY4Q25 supply numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k automobiles barely beneath the corporate’s consensus supply estimate of 422.9k however significantly better than the whisper numbers of ~410k because the…

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026

When it comes to car deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla actually has some issues to work via if it desires to return to development in that facet, particularly with the lack of the $7,500 tax credit score within the U.S. and “steady headwinds” for the corporate in Europe.

Nevertheless, Ives additionally believes thatgiven the supply numbers, which had been on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned properly for a robust 2026, particularly with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab improvement, and power:

“This can be considered as higher than feared deliveries and a step in the correct path for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We sit up for listening to extra on the firm’s 4Q25 name on January twenty eighth. AI Valuation – The Focus All through 2026. We imagine Tesla may attain a $2 trillion market cap over the approaching yr and, in a bull case state of affairs, $3 trillion by the tip of 2026…as full-scale quantity manufacturing begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The corporate has began to check the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the previous few weeks, which is an incremental step in the direction of launching in 2026 with necessary quantity manufacturing of Cybercabs beginning in April/Could, which stays the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”

It’s no secret that for the previous a number of years, Tesla’s car supply numbers have been the primary focus of traders and analysts have checked out them as an indicator of firm well being to a sure extent. The issue with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing extra on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus venture, AI improvement, and Cybercab.

Whereas car deliveries nonetheless maintain significance, it’s extra essential to notice that Tesla’s general surroundings as a enterprise depends on far more than simply what number of automobiles are bought. That metric, to a sure extent, is fading in significance within the grand scheme of issues, however it would by no means completely disappear.

Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 worth goal and an ‘Outperform’ score on the inventory.