The Tesla vs. Waymo Battle Rages on with New Feedback

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Certainly one of two issues is true: 1) Waymo lives in Elon Musk’s head rent-free and goes to proceed to be the robotaxi chief in North America for years to return, or 2) Waymo has been residing on borrowed time, as Elon Musk claims, and Tesla will dash previous the corporate just like the tortoise vs. the hare if the hare had merely woken up earlier. (Utilizing that tortoise vs. the hare metaphor, although, I’m positive many Tesla FSD critics will say that Tesla continues to be sleeping on the necessity for radar and/or lidar along with cameras.)

Regardless of the case could also be, the Tesla vs. Waymo battle has been raging for a couple of decade, and it continues to take action.

Jeff Dean, Chief Scientist at Google DeepMind & Google Analysis and Gemini Lead, didn’t title Tesla or Elon Musk in a publish on Tuesday, however he apparently poked the honey badger nonetheless. He wrote:

“Waymo’s system, fueled by cautious assortment of a giant quantity of totally autonomous information, is probably the most superior, large-scale software of embodied AI right this moment. Very proud to see this stage of engineering rigor tackling protected autonomous driving making the roads safer for everybody (and it has been good to see numerous Google analysis collaborations with Waymo be part of these advances!).

“The insights listed below are foundational for a way we design and safely scale all complicated AI methods.

“Learn extra at: https://waymo.com/weblog/2025/12/demonstrably-safe-ai-for-autonomous-driving “

Somebody on X responded, “I might have an interest to see your arguments in comparison with Tesla who additionally declare to be probably the most superior massive scale software of embodied AI.”

Jeff did reply, writing: “I don’t suppose Tesla has wherever close to the amount of rider-only autonomous miles that Waymo has (96M for Waymo, as of right this moment). The security information is sort of compelling for Waymo, as properly. For extra particulars, see: https://waymo.com/security/affect/ ”

That’s the place it apparently received on Elon Musk’s radar, or a minimum of received him to reply. This broad declare implying doom for Waymo adopted: “Waymo by no means actually had an opportunity towards Tesla. This will probably be apparent in hindsight.” This principally echoes what Musk has been saying for a couple of decade. It’s the identical argument time and time once more — Waymo can’t scale like Tesla will have the ability to scale, and Waymo’s system will price an excessive amount of in the long run, so Waymo will lose and die. Wanting backward solely, Waymo has been profitable when it comes to precise robotaxi deployments and development. Nevertheless, the Tesla argument is that would change at any second — or very, very quickly now — after which Tesla will have the ability to rapidly shoot previous Waymo, whose large numbers will quickly look small.

Whether or not Musk is true or incorrect, we now have to stay with the “time will inform” concession as a result of that’s all we are able to actually truthfully do till he’s confirmed proper or Waymo turns into worthwhile whereas competing towards a extra mature FSD-powered robotaxi rollout. Nevertheless, in the intervening time, Waymo has clearly scaled up to an enormous diploma — quicker than anybody else — and is rapidly coming into an increasing number of markets. I do additionally wonder if Waymo has plans to begin integrating its tech into typical automakers’ automobiles and licensing the software program. In idea, that would carry shopper automobiles into Tesla’s FSD realm in quite a few markets protecting a lot of the market. Critics declare Waymo’s system is way too costly for that, however others declare the prices hold coming down quickly, and if mass produced for shopper automobiles, it may attain a stage the place it may be fairly simply rolled into the value of premium-class automobiles. Whether or not Waymo is engaged on attending to that place or simply plans to proceed within the robotaxi market, we’ll see.

I believe many Tesla followers now imagine Waymo will die in 2026 because of advances coming from Tesla. Naturally, Waymo followers largely imagine that Tesla can’t obtain the robotaxi hype it has been increase for 10 years, and see 2026 as a giant development interval for Waymo. I tend to have an open thoughts about what’s doable till I’ve a transparent, agency understanding of how issues will go. My present favourite dialogue on these matters, although, is right here: Digging Deeper into Variations Between Tesla Full Self-Driving & Waymo Driver. Previously (a number of years in the past), I argued that Tesla FSD would win out and Waymo wouldn’t have the ability to compete. In the intervening time, although, I lean extra towards the arguments put forth by “Matthew2312” in that article. We are going to see.